Package: BayesianQDM 0.1.0

BayesianQDM: Bayesian Quantitative Decision-Making Framework for Binary and Continuous Endpoints

Provides comprehensive methods to calculate posterior probabilities, posterior predictive probabilities, and Go/NoGo/Gray decision probabilities for quantitative decision-making under a Bayesian paradigm in clinical trials. The package supports both single and two-endpoint analyses for binary and continuous outcomes, with controlled, uncontrolled, and external designs. For single continuous endpoints, three calculation methods are available: numerical integration (NI), Monte Carlo simulation (MC), and Moment-Matching approximation (MM). For two continuous endpoints, a bivariate Normal-Inverse-Wishart conjugate model is implemented with MC and MM methods. For two binary endpoints, a Dirichlet-multinomial model is implemented. External designs incorporate historical data through power priors using exact conjugate representations (Normal-Inverse-Chi-squared for single continuous, Normal-Inverse-Wishart for two continuous, and Dirichlet for binary endpoints), enabling closed-form posterior computation without Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. This approach significantly reduces computational burden while preserving complete Bayesian rigor. The package also provides grid-search functions to find optimal Go and NoGo thresholds that satisfy user-specified operating characteristic criteria for all supported endpoint types and study designs. S3 print() and plot() methods are provided for all decision probability classes, enabling formatted display and visualisation of Go/NoGo/Gray operating characteristics across treatment scenarios. See Kang, Yamaguchi, and Han (2026) <doi:10.1080/10543406.2026.2655410> for the methodological framework.

Authors:Gosuke Homma [aut, cre], Yusuke Yamaguchi [aut]